Land Area Coverage of the Next 2 Billion People This Century (PART 3)

Onward from PART1 and PART 2; you've exposure to some American examples of urbanism. In order to convey the actual ground-level conditions of urbanism in the locations mentioned I will add graphics representations of the housing styles prevalent in New York, Chicago and Los Angeles, maybe even Beijing. In seeking to answer the question of, "Where will the next 2 billion people live?"

We should consider the physical dimension and intensity of land uses apart from those tied up in existing urban housing, as well as reconsider the various types of urban housing stock from the detached single family home to the duplex/triplex and further still to zero lot line blocks of rowhouses and high rise apartments. I believe it to be entirely plausible and highly desirable from an economic and socio-cultural perspective that the U.S. population could grow to double its present size without expanding actual urban boundaries by a single additional square mile. I believe road infrastructure could easily sustain 100% capacity growth (even with reduced physical dimensions) if vehicles were removed from the equation and public open space including parks could remain untouched by new development to house more people. This is not mere speculation but a conclusion reached after a lifetime of observation in this nation, as well as periods spent observing various nations of Asia from Japan and Korea to China and also Sri Lanka.

My intent is not to bash a popular perspective that the detached home is ideal, but to illustrate that we may utilize the overlooked in-between spaces that makeup a majority of urban fabric in American cities. New housing, new cottage-level industry and new business would be better positioned for end consumers, management and positively reinforced growth if located within the extant neighborhoods of single family homes where most of the American people live. Transportation could be retrofitted to function at far greater efficiency and greater speed were we to increase the intensity of our living within extant neighborhoods.  Commerce, supply, demand, and travel behavior would be direct beneficiaries to enhanced urban development programs. The discussion in America is detached from a growing global reality. A reform of the discussion on access to housing and property should grow from the somewhat controversial notion that all humanity deserves at least a baseline of safe/healthy housing, sanitation, and water no matter what what nation we reside within. The notion should not be controversial, as a great many people would agree that we have inalienable human rights. Why would these rights not include a guarantee to at least a minimum healthful standard of housing, sanitation and access to clean drinking water. The potential fruit of such a realization would be millions of human minds freed to endeavor toward solving other problems, free to contemplate the future.

Those who have observed overcrowded and  dangerous slum conditions around the world may agree that the people subject to slum conditions should be afforded at least a minimum opportunity to escape from the worst conditions. After-all,  what reasonable The possibility for massive human exodus is not realistic or feasible, given socio-cultural and political border. Housing and sanitation must be distributed to those in need, sourced locally, and produced with industrial efficiency along with an education. The key to alleviating the stresses of burgeoning population has proven, in many nations that have effected such programs as public education, to be eased over the course of some interim of years. The issue though has reached a critical phase in human history; whereas people dwelling in slums, one billion strong and growing, presently receive few managed services and resources though could not at once be supplied with sustainable housing, food, sanitation and water without a massive repositioning and management strategy of resources. Those on the short end of the existing resource distribution deal face a distinct challenge.

Cases in point, a collection of photos, that reflects the living conditions of about 1 billion people on this planet:

KARACHI STREET, LACED WITH FUEL LINES OR WATER LINES?

RIVER AS GARBAGE DISPOSAL

THE BACKYARD; IT"S WHERE THE KIDS GO TO PLAY BALL

WATER MAIN FOR THE URBAN ELITE FUNCTIONING AS THOROUGHFARE FOR THE DISENFRANCHISED

RIVER OR WASTE?

RIVER AS SEWER, DRINKING WATER, DUMP, AND BATH TUB

THE SEWER OUT FRONT; DO THEY SPRAY FOR MOSQUITOES OR JUST GET REALLY SICK FROM THEM?

LEFT= DISENFRANCHISED : RIGHT = CAPITAL INVESTMENT

I HOPE THEY DON'T EXPERIENCE A HURRICANE

LET"S GO SWIMMING; BOBBING FOR RECYCLABLES ANYONE?

SINGLE FAMILY HOMES AKA THE AMERICAN DREAM

SAIGON WATERFRONT REAL ESTATE

NUFF SAID?

DENSITY WITHOUT SAFE PLANNING OR GOOD INFRASTRUCTURE IMPROVEMENT


A solution I propose is industrial (though in-situ) production of basic housing and sanitation infrastructure, to be built and constructed locally of regionally sourced materials, and to be distributed to point of consumption. i.e. to be promoted within underserved urban slum areas for all the local population to partake of at minimal upfront cost, though ultimately to provide for and protect a new base of labor, intellect, and market on a carefully tailored scale. The housing types and infrastructure should be designed according to historical cultural precedent so as to retain characteristics of the people's historical cultural growth.

Some Conditions of the U.S. Economy

" According to the Texas Workforce Commission, 51 percent of all Texas workers make less than $33,000 a year. Only 30 percent make more than $50,000 a year. "   - Fact Check

" About 9.5 percent of Texas hourly workers, excluding those who are paid salaries, earn the minimum wage or less, tying Mississippi for the highest percentage in the nation. "   - Fact Check

Initial lInvestigation Into the Danger to Life of Structure Fires

A Report from the Year 1910 to UNITED STATES GEOLOGICAL SURVEY Attempting to Explain the Destructive Force of Fire, Its Causes and Tendencies

The report assumed the position that much lower rates of property loss were reported from old European cities in comparison to American cities as attributable to fireproof masonry construction being a primary building material. The report finds the greatest loss of property per capita in the United States exists in the South and Midwest, where wood frame construction was (and remains) the prevailing structure condition. The great property loss to the South remains even in the year 2010, as evidenced by the NFPA in the 2010 report. Another notable fact of these reports is that the greatest per capita cost of the losses is in low density regions, and concerning fire deaths there are approximately double the rate per million persons occuring in the American South (13/1mil.) and slightly fewer in the Midwest (12.6/1mil.) though even here still much higher than in the Northeast (6.8/1mil.). Also of note, is the conclusion that deaths in the West (5.7/1mil.) are the lowest, though many western cities are somewhat more dense than the those of the South. The greatest incidence of fire is in the South and Midwest at 4.9 per thousand persons, and property losses are greatest.

Car-Free Neighborhood Proposal for Major Urban Reinvention in the United States

This is a series of images designed from my ongoing years long study of urban conditions. Arrived at through on site observation and readings about the detrimental station of cars within any given urban fabric. I've taken elements from illustrations of ancient Greek towns, experience with Chinese courtyard housing, variations of block size and differentiated individual preference.

The plan I've designed incorporates housing types from 3 story, "3-I Townhouse," arrangements, 4-5 story "Barcelona Blocks," large setback 9 story boulevard blocks, and tower blocks having 18, 27, and 36 stories (9 story incremental height increase allowances). The setbacks and building heights are designed so that every low-rise block receives direct sunlight for at least 2 hours during the winter solstice at street level on southern facades. The employ of direct access to sunlight makes for less imposing urban form, and promotes street life throughout the year.

From experience, and the publications of various other authors on the subject, I've arrived at the conclusion that street widths of approximately 30' permit nice variation in street furnishings, public use, pedestrian traffic flow, the potential for urban vegetable gardens if planting strips are utilized as storm water catchments in the middle of each street. Here are some projections of what a safe, clean, car free urban form may look like if built out to capacity a designed capacity of about 75,000 people per square mile. The first image represents high-rise buildings along a series of perimeter boulevards designed to encompass an area of 1 round or square kilometer. The high-rise buildings wouldn't intrude oppressively into the skyline on lower blocks as illustrated in the second image. The second image is intended to show a typical street view from 4-5 story blocks only a few hundred feet from the base of the high-rise boulevards, and this view is essentially a worst case scenario as far as high-rise intrusion into the more human scaled blocks within the 75,000 people per square mile urban fabric. The third image is a typical block of 3 stories + rooftop loft apartments. This image also illustrates the free use of ground level outdoor space for planting, patio, and outdoor activity. We essential create a dense park of buildings among natural "backyard," elements of landscape and patio public space.